Joe’s Weather World: Slopfest for Wednesday

Weather Blog

Good evening…a very late and somewhat short weather blog tonight (WED). I’ve been tied up in a couple of things today including in Topeka early this morning for a seminar with my colleagues from Topeka as well as the NWS and Emergency management from various areas across NE KS and north central KS as well…so an early and busy start to the day.

The forecast has also been a pain in the you know what because of many different possible outcomes…more on that in the discussion.

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Forecast:

Tonight: Clouds in KC with clearer skies in northern MO. Cold but nothing crazy with lows near 30°

Wednesday: Snow develops as the morning moves on…especially towards or after rush hour. The snow may melt on the pavement if it’s light BUT if it comes down hard enough…slushy accumulations are possible along with developing slippery conditions.. The snow may mix with or flip to rain at times as well…then convert back to snow before the arctic front arrives tomorrow late night. Accumulations of a dusting to 2″ for the KC region with another inch or so possible east and south of KC. There is some upside to this but it just depends how fast the snow falls and what temperature it is when it’s falling

Thursday: Bitterly cold morning with sub-zero wind chills and lows near 6°. Highs in the afternoon in the upper teens

Friday: Cold morning…low near 4…better afternoon…near freezing with sunshine.


Discussion:

Bear with me as I adjust to a new web page and a new format for working and typing with the blog. This will take me a few days to get used to.

The storm in question is down in the SW part of the country…and will be lifting into the southern Plains tomorrow. There is a lot of moisture with it.

The storm will move towards the southern Plains tomorrow…and as we go up to about 18,000 feet or the 500 mb level we can see it coming out.

https://ready.arl.noaa.gov/data/forecast/grads/hrrrp/panel1/anim.gif

As it does so…and as the precip in the form of snow comes up the I-35 corridor tomorrow morning it will be encountering dry air as it moves NE towards the region.

Here is the 6PM map…note the numbers in GREEN…those are the dew points. The dew points here are in the teens right now.

So as the snow comes up it will get chewed on but we should see faster saturation of the atmosphere this time as opposed to the Parade snow that barely happened.

So then with snow falling tomorrow…the surface temperatures will be in the 32-35° range…that means when it snows lightly…it may not stick…especially to the pavement and concrete…when it comes down very hard though it can overcome the “warmer” pavement temperatures…so another complication for sure.

Then on top off all this…there is the potential for a rain to snow transition tomorrow night as the arctic air moves in and the temperatures crash before midnight.

Temperatures will tank after the front for sure with gusty NW winds of 20-35 MPH…sending sub-zero wind chills quickly our way.

IF there is no snow on the ground…we could be in the 50s over the weekend.

Renee Carney has the feature photo tonight

Joe

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