Joe’s Weather World: Snow + cutting cold + 50s (WED-2/12)

Weather Blog

Snow is increasing towards the southwest of KC and will be coming up through eastern KS and western MO as the day unfolds. Accumulations are likely and while there continues to be some issue with the temperatures and with the dry air initially…in time it will snow and it could be those big old snowflakes.

The roads will probably be OK through 9AM or so and the evening rush hour. The real issue with this whole thing may be tomorrow AM as bitterly cold air comes into the area later tonight and sends the temperatures tanking to near 0°. The winds will howl and the wind chills will be well below zero…lovely.

The main issue tomorrow might be the flash freeze potential…this is always a tricky thing because whatever is wet or slushy will try to dry out with the strong 30 MPH winds blowing overnight…BUT with the temperatures tanking it tries to freeze 1st…so it will be a race to see which happens faster. Icing over or drying out.

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Forecast:

Today: Snow moving up from the southwest. Accumulations will be 2-4″ or so…some upside IF it snows hard enough before melting. Various effects on the roads from wet to slushy at times. Temperatures creeping towards the mid 30s or so.

Tonight: Snow ends with the arctic front towards 12AM…Clearing out and bitterly cold with lows down to 0-5° and wind chills -5 to -15°. Winds gusting to 30 MPH

Tomorrow: Sunny and cold with highs in the upper teens

Friday: Mostly sunny and cold. Lows in the 0-5° range with highs near 30°

Warmer this weekend with 40s-50s possible!

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Discussion:

So bear with me…the blog…and the web page for the next week or so. We have all new formatting that will take some time to get used to and for you to get used to as well. It appears the comments section is gone…it might be permanent. So comments will have to be on twitter or on my FB page regarding anything that you want to mention…questions etc. I’m still trying to figure out links and hot links so that the data remains up to date regardless of when you read the blog like in the older format…I’ve lost some abilities but with the help from the web folks it’ll get figured out.

It is what it is….

Onwards…

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Noon update…the temperatures are running about 2° below where the snow will melt off…so as a result we’re going to end up with more snow…2-4+” is the update with upside from there in spots, especially southside. This was also talked about all week…remember the “cautionary tale” item I talked about last night…

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So another stressful storm for your local meteorologist. Snow…ad at some point a wintry mix and or rain is likely today. Bitterly cold air tonight…and a warmer weekend. These are the guarantees of the forecast.

The devil is in the details and the crux of the accumulations for the snow may come this morning into early this afternoon as I talked about on the newscasts last night. My thought process is a lot of melting happens at some point later this afternoon into early this evening before the arctic front arrives send temperatures crashing overnight.

So that means if some get 1-3″ or so of slushy snow…half or more may melt away in the above freezing air this afternoon. IF it snows hard enough…the roads and pavement will get an accumulation to them…which will melt off in time today.

So various amounts of snow will be on the ground at various times…tough to get a good accumulation with that happening. Whenever the snow lightens up…tough to accumulate…if/when it snows harder…it can accumulate somewhat easier because it’s not melting off as quickly.

As I mentioned last night on the news…and have mentioned a dozen times on the blog…I miss last winter’s snow predictions.

So let’s get into the weeds…1st radar of what’s coming up towards the area…

As of 7AM snow is being reported towards the SW of KC…the atmosphere on the latest sounding looks pretty dry below 8-9,000 feet or so…so that will take a bit of time to saturate…but in time it should and the snow will reach the ground here as it is in SE KS.

Here is the bigger picture…

With temperatures being what they should be and rain playing a role potentially…instead of a somewhat typical 10:1 snow ratio…1″ of rain = 10″ of snow…I’m doing a 7:1 ratio…so when the models spits out 2-4″ of snow…I’m cutting that by at least 30% if not more because of the time the snow is happening…the wetness of the snow…the fact that it may mix with rain and the surface temperatures in the mid 30s this afternoon. On the flip side there is some decent lift this morning in the area where the snow is forming in the atmosphere…so that may help the ratios a bit…

So with that said…forecasts from the last couple of days look pretty much on track with 1-3″ possible…some upside if certain areas see pocket of faster falling snow this morning. Melting this afternoon…and renewed coatings to 1″ potential tonight.

My reliable site for the HRRR model isn’t working as of this morning…

The cold air will come into the area overnight…look up towards the northern Plains where temperatures are 10 to 20 BELOW this morning…

On the map above the cold front stretches from northern SD into northern MN.

It will barrel towards us tonight and should move through around 10PM or so from the north to the south…strong winds will accompany the front with the tanking temperatures and the risk of a flash freeze scenario will be increasing overnight IF things don’t dry out in time. You can see the swath of moisture coming towards the region today.

So how much will we add to these totals before the end of the day? (via IA State)

Our feature photo comes from Chip Houser…we got to enjoy a real pretty sunset yesterday after a pretty gray day overall.

Joe

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