Joe’s Weather World: Unusual warmth continues…then it will not (MON-9/30)

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This month has been a warm one..6.3° above average overall…and we’ll add a bit more to that today. Heck already today we’ve tied our record warm low for the date (9/30) and we may break one tomorrow. Winds were strong overnight and will stay strong all day long today. This will all come to an abrupt end later Tuesday night into Wednesday. Cooler air will be the rule for the rest of the week and yes there will be more rain on Wednesday. Fall is coming and this probably is the end of the super warm weather till next year!

  • Forecast:

Today: Windy and warm with highs well into the 80s. Gusts to 35 MPH

Tonight: Windy and warm with lows 70-75°

Tomorrow: Windy and warm with highs in the mid 80s. Clouds will be a bit more prevalent at times.

Wednesday: At some point the cold front will come through…the exact timing of that though is a question and IF the front is slower we may have another warm day with increasing rain chances and falling temperature potential when the front moves through the area. Cooler north and warmer south is a good starting point. Highs may be 75-80° in the Metro IF the front is slower…or near 60° IF thee front is faster

Thursday: Mostly sunny and cooler with highs in the mid 60s. Blustery

  • Discussion:

A lot of climate stuff about what we’ve experienced to start things off.

This will go down as the 6th warmest September in KC weather history.

Regardless of today’s warmth we won’t be able to pop to #5. Still pretty impressive.

Today we’re starting with a tie of the warmest low temperature for today’s date. Tying the record set in 1971.

Assuming we have the same wind overnight…we may well break a record tomorrow for the warmest low…although a cold front coming later tomorrow night will make this a possible near 12AM Tuesday evening low…perhaps below 72°…we’ll see.

Speaking of records…ICYMI yesterday…the “water” year ends today…this data is from 10/1/18-9/30/19…and we’ve nver had so much moisture in KC in that time frame before.

So what does all that moisture mean…well while these computations are sort of rough and assume the entire city of KC had 65° of moisture in that same time frame…all 318 sq miles (which isn’t possible…some had more…some had less)…but if we wanted to have fun with 65: of moisture in the “water” year.

That would be the equivalent to 4.5 BILLION bathtubs worth of water…with a common bathtub being 80 gallons of water. 4.5 BILLION!

4.5 Billion of these…


It appears that we’ll start October with more rain too as a very FALL front comes this way tomorrow night into Wednesday. Moisture will be streaming northwards…dew points now are in the 70s…and upper level moisture is coming in as well….you can see that clearly on the water vapor loop which enhances the moisture in the atmosphere…

Notice that blob off the coast of Baja California near western Mexico…that’s a fading tropical system that was tropical storm Narda. Notice how the moisture is blowing off of that system and coming into the Plains…

So the fall cold front at the surface moves in during the wee hours of Wednesday. It’s not a super favorable time for rain locally although there should at least be something with that early Wednesday. Then the front just slowly oozes southwards from there…with moisture streaming from the SW to the NW above the front and behind it. It’s a recipe for some rain locally…and perhaps in parts of the area…a lot of rain.

The worst of the rain may well be in areas that need to dry out…NE KS and NW MO…where flooding is again a major issue after what happened over the weekend.

There are numerous road closures up there today because of flooding.

The MoDot map shows all the high water closings up there….

The problem is that the slow moving front will enhance the rains across northern MO again…

There are still questions about who gets the heaviest rains from this…lower res NAM has this more from KC northwards…whicle the hi-res NAM from overnight has this more towards KC…

But another 1/2″-3″ is very possible overnight Tuesday into Wednesday.

Beyond there we cool off significantly and dry out for a couple of days.

More rain is possible at least on Saturday…seems to be a bummer stretch of Saturday’s around these parts…this Saturday could again be an issue. Sunday looks drier at this point

Overall though after tomorrow…it’s cool…very cool with a stretch of below average temperatures likely.

Our feature photo comes from Savannah Whitesell down in the Spring Hill area who sends me a ton of great pictures.


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