Joe’s Weather World: Waves of rain but breaks too (SAT-5/18)

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Good afternoon…another wave of storms/rain is coming in after the morning activity and thus far at least my forecast from yesterday is playing out almost to perfection…we have rain cooled air on top of the Metro now…and it’s not really going to be able to destabilze too much for the rest of the afternoon. Storms are likely through 3-4PM or so but a significant evening break may come into the area and dry things out for awhile hopefully helping out with some early evening activities. There may be some locally heavy rains with the afternoon activity but the risk of a significant severe weather situation developing in the KC Metro seems very low to me at this point…whether it be through 4PM or even later tonight.

I talked Thursday about the potential of some minimum criteria severe storms…and at least thus far that’s what we’ve seen. The thing is as the storms come northbound into the cooler air from SE KS (where it is more unstable as I type this) they may just turn into bigger rain makers for us. There is some instability above the cooler surface air though and areas farther SE of KC are getting more unstable so let’s not totally let our guard down for the afternoon at least.

  • Forecast:

This afternoon: Periods of rain/storms. Some low grade severe weather is possible but I don’t think it will be anything noteworthy for the KC Metro at least right now. The storms may contain some hail. Temperatures will struggle to get to 70° in most areas then waver around with incoming rains. There may be some areas though on the MO side especially that are a bit warmer. A break in the storms/rain should come after 4PM or so.

Tonight: Another round of storms/rain possible after 10PM or so into the early morning hours of Sunday. Lows down into the 50s

Sunday: Variable clouds and cool with blustery winds gusting to 25 MPH. Highs in the 60s

Monday: We’ll stay dry for the day…by night the though risk of overnight storms gets greater with locally heavy rains too. Breezy and cool with highs in the 60s

  • Discussion:

So let’s start with radar…most important for today.

I’m going to add in Topeka radar too…

The activity moving up from the south did prompt a brief severe t/storm warning earlier from 11 to 11:20 or so in Anderson Co…it was cancelled early…I just have this feeling that the atmosphere is sort of worked over.

I will keep an eye out to the SE of KC especially as there is more instability towards the Lakes region…the 11AM surface map shows temperatures well into the 70s down there and there is a front (outflow) down south of the Metro that is starting to wash out a bit.

The area down south is on the edge of a Tornado Watch…

At 11AM KCI is up to 70°…we may get a few more degrees in before we drop with the incoming rains again…that was one of my predictions from yesterday’s weather casts too. Temperatures may bounce around today with the waves of rain coming through.

The main issue for the situation is the potential for locally heavy rains…the soils can absorb some right now after 5 days without much rain locally…but they can’t absorb a ton. So let’s watch that…my “big picture” thought though is this is setting the stage for the next system coming our way Monday night into Tuesday. By then the soils will not have had a chance to dry out…and that next shot of rain may create another 1-4″ worth in the region…more on that tomorrow.

Meanwhile for the rest of today…here is the short range HRRR model. By the way…HRRR stands for High Resolution Rapid Refresh model and is updated hourly.

Overall rains today should be in the 1/2″ to 2″ range it appears.

The actual cold front will come through during the overnight hours…

Only parts of the area are still under the “slight” risk for severe storms…

Areas in NW MO have been dropped…and the Metro is on the edge…but again tough to see at this point, in my opinion and as I mentioned last night, how much we get above minimum criteria stuff (if even that).

Meanwhile some very impressive tornadoes last night…several cycling supercells with tornadoes at various times in NE and KS.

Monday though could see some worse tornadoes towards the heart of tornado country in May…OK.

Our feature photo comes from ‎Kim O’Neill-Young‎  up in Gower, MO from the other night’s storms.


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