Joe’s Weather World: Welcome to fall! (9/22)

Weather Blog

It started at around 8:30 this morning. Fall is here and summer has left the building. Actually it wasn’t such a bad summer…the majority of the 90°+ days actually happened in the 1st half it seemed…and the rainfall was enough to keep things pretty green…that’s the 2nd year in a row for that too. We’ve had about 15″ worth of moisture in KC during the summer

The hottest we’ve been so far is only 94°. That really is remarkable and is a rarity in terms of summer heat. There have only been 6 other years with that happening.

Fall is here…and we’re going to actually warm-up into the early part of next week. We could actually make a run towards 90° so the A/C days are coming back, if you turned it off like I did for the last week or so.



Today: Variable clouds and pleasant with highs in the mid>upper 70s

Tonight: Fair and pleasant with lows close to 55-60°

Tomorrow: Partly cloudy and mild with highs in the 70s

Thursday: Mostly sunny with highs near 80°



Sure there was heat…sure there was humidity…sure there were more than a few days with high heat indices…but overall the summer wasn’t terrible, at least in my opinion.

When we needed the rain it came…sometimes too much at a time, but then again that’s typical for the summer season. There was some summer flooding, especially in northern MO…but for the 2nd year in a row…many areas did OK with rain in a time when sometimes rain gets pretty sparse.

We finished summer dry…and will start fall dry…and there really isn’t a lot to get excited about for the time being on a bunch of moisture locally. Slim chances every so often but nothing really overwhelming at this point.

It’s not to unusual for us to have really dry times in the fall…especially the early fall. Moisture has a somewhat harder time of getting here and the fronts, unless there is a strong one…sometimes aren’t enough to get storms and rain going in terms of widespread coverage.

You’ll also notice more of a breeze developing as we head towards the weekend. This will help as well to warm us up. So a run into the 80s is a lock…we’ll see how much more we can get. There may be a sneaky hotter day in there before a decently strong cold front comes through sometime early next week.

We’ll start off the month of October pretty cool overall.

The graphic above also shows the lack of rain…and the data below going into the 7th of OCT isn’t too wet…not at all. This is the GFS ensemble trends.

EURO ensembles through 15 days show less than 1/2″ as well. So if you’ve’ll need the sprinkler…a lot.

A few climate related notes…as data comes in from the global perspective…August…overall was a very hot month globally. Again locally not too bad at all…globally…hot…but then again so what else is new?

This year though has been another brutal year for arctic ice. The coverage is getting smaller and smaller and last week marked the annual minimum…which was the 2nd lowest in satellite record history. One look at this NASA animation illustrates the decrease.

2012 was the record low…last year was tied for #2 until this year…which is now the new #2.

Essentially the Arctic region, according to NASA is warming at 3 times the rate as the rest of the world. Ice melting in the Spring and Summer is normal…and ice reforming now is normal as well. The amount of the melting then with the combined thinner ice that reforms and melts even faster next season is what makes this climate issue.

The rapid melting then allows the water to absorb the near constant sunlight…then the water gets warmer easier…which leads to more melting and we go into what’s known as a feedback loop.

OK so really it’s a no brainer what’s happening up in the Arctic region…you really can’t question it or the data at this point anymore.

What about the other side of the world. Well most of the world’s population lives in the Northern Hemisphere…like almost 90%. So what happens in the Arctic has ramifications for a large chunk of the world’s people.

The Southern Hemisphere is mostly water and into the Antarctic a lot of ice. There is roughly 80% water compared to 20% land. Here there is more ice in the Antarctic compared to the Arctic…and the rate of change there isn’t quite as pronounced.

But it is getting much more variable compared to the years leading up to 2000. Note the bigger swings in the last decade or so.

There is more information here about this and the differences.

In a nutshell…from the article above…

“Overall, the long-term trend in Antarctic sea ice is nearly flat. Spanning over four decades, the satellite record shows periods of increasing and decreasing sea ice, but few of those trends have been statistically significant. In 2013, 2014, and 2015, Antarctic sea ice yearly minimum extents (occurring in February or March) not only exceeded the 1981–2010 average, they also exceeded almost all the values in the satellite record for that time of year. In 2012, 2013, and 2014, yearly maximum extents (occurring in September) were successively the highest on record.”

Anyway some interesting climate related tidbits in the news today.

The feature photo today comes from Linda Sisney in JOCO of the smokey sunset.


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