Joe’s Weather World: Winter goes on a bit of a break (FRI-12/20)

Weather Blog

For many of you the holidays start really getting into swing this weekend…last minute rushing around…family coming into and out of town…just a general hustle and bustle of the holidays.

That means you don’t check in with me and the blog as often…which is good and bad. Bad when there is active weather…good that this time of year is sort of a pleasant distraction from the day to day routine. With the sort of mundanely mild weather trends through Christmas Eve…perhaps longer…it’s really not going to be a bad thing to have your other distractions.

The bottom line is Merry Christmas! I’ll get a few blogs together next week…but really there isn’t a lot going on right now and that’s good for traveler’s and good for about everyone else who don’t want a White Christmas.

  • Forecast: 

Today: Cloudy this morning…there may be a brief sprinkle south of KC…then clearing later afternoon with highs approaching 50°

Tonight: Fair skies and chilly but not bad for late December with lows in the 30° range

Saturday: Should be brighter with highs in the lower 50s

Sunday: Milder with highs in the 55-60° range

Monday: Mostly sunny and warm with highs near 60°…some upside

  • Discussion:

Well yesterday the EURO through a Hail Mary White Christmas pass attempt. I showed it on the news last night and told you I had doubts the modelling was going to be correct though.

Last night that snow was toast…so really that 1% chance of a White Christmas is about 0% right now…

It may rain though…

The EURO data overnight has this look for who will have at least some snow on the Ground for Christmas Day…

Upper Midwest and Rockies area seems most favored and that is about right for Christmas.

Nationwide today at least…some 38% of the country is snow covered as of this morning.

The last time we had more snow on the ground on this date was back in 2016.

So far this year…we’ve had 5.4″ of snow…and while nothing is coming for at least a week…perhaps longer…there may be one more chance before the New Year.

Here in the Plains though the snow season has started out well “overall”.

Already 20-50″ worth across the Upper Midwest.

Again nothing really promising down here for at least a week for snow lovers to get too excited about.

The opposite actually. I just wanted to drop a couple of items in regarding the warmth coming up. Yesterday we hit 51° at KCI…far exceeding forecasts…the snow up there is virtually gone except in shaded areas…while I look out my window this morning on the south side with considerably more snowcover. Even that will be toast by later tomorrow mostly.

I mentioned that we would’ve been 60-65° yesterday without the snow on the ground in the region. When the snow finally disappears in the area…we’re poised for a dramatic warm-up given enough sunshine and a bit of a breeze.

Here are the highest highs for Sunday the 22nd.

and for Monday the 23rd…

and for the heck of it Tuesday the 24th (Christmas Eve).

I don’t think we’ll be in the mid 60s…but near 60 any of those days is possible although Tuesday may be more of a struggle because of a lot of clouds filtering the sunshine.

Hey not bad for the first few days of winter…Saturday night actually at 10:19 PM

Meanwhile in Alaska…it’s cold (for a change)…like real cold.

I’ll often show you Alaska when WE’RE real cold…typically they’ll be warmer up there in parts of the state. Well when they get real cold…we typically are milder (not always but more often than not).

How cold was it…well something yesterday happened in Barrow, AK…far northern AK…for the 1st time since June 24th…they had a day with temperatures BELOW average. That’s right…a 177 day streak of warmer than average weather…broke yesteday. There may have been one 1 day average temperatures.

The high there was -4 and the low was -15…that was a average for the day of -9°…1° below average.

With the changing climate up there and the lack of sea ice for many days/months it couldn’t get overly cold despite being in near total darkness. The sea ice has filled in however in most of the region

4-12″ thick ice is considered “young” ice.

Anyway…cold there…milder trends here.

By the way the new long range forecast came out last night off the EURO model…I didn’t get too deeply involved…I’ll look or tonight but here is a glance at the forecast snow through early FEBRUARY from the various models that go into the ensemble (average).

Average data is over 6″…which actually would be about normal for JAN into early FEB.

Snowlovers can dream though I guess.

OK that’s it for today…no blogs over the weekend I don’t think…quiet weather. Again Merry Christmas…safe travels and I’ll see you again on the blog early next week.

My feature photo comes from Kelsey Lynn Bollin out in Leavenworth, KS…cool shot!


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