Joe’s Wx Blog: Could This Finally Be The Day?

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Good morning…well there is finally some good news to report in the attempt at figuring out some rainfall on a more widespread basis for the KC area…something is finally headed this way! It seems like these systems have been all over the place recently. Either they’ve been north…south…east…west…but nothing coming down the pike towards the Metro. Well this AM there is finally something in SE NE that is moving to the SE….and towards the KC area. Sadly though it’s not looking too healthy as it heads our way. One thing though that is surviving is the rain cooled air being pushed out ahead of this feature. Winds are switching to the N/NW now and that will keep the heat at bay today with highs only in the 80-85° range it appears for many areas and perhaps only in the 70s for areas in N MO. Areas SE of the metro should see hotter temperatures.

Now before we get overly excited and with the thought that beggers can’t be choosey this system is weakening as it moves to the SE..and the only things at this point we can hope for is that 1) it holds together long enough to give us something…and two it leaves residual boundaries around to fire additional convection during the afternoon.

This system has finally produced rain in Lincoln, NE where they haven’t had measurable rain all month long. A whooping .21″ has fallen up there from 1-7AM…so it’s a start. The thing is in looking at radar from Grand Island, NE…you can see this thing already starting to huff and puff a bit…which is VERY typical of systems like this in the morning hours, when there is not a decent low level jet stream providing fuel for the engine as it gets closer to it. Radar from Topeka shows an area between Marysville, KS and Hastings, NE that could be our only hope of getting something decent from this…

The bright sunshine that we had earlier is about to give way to a lot of clouds, so if nothing else temperatures for today will be lower than yesterday’s highs when we hit 97° @ KCI. That may very well be the last real hot day for the rest of the month…or close to it as things will certainly be cooling off for the rest of the week. Here come the clouds!

The clouds though are a problem as well…assuming they keep temperatures in the 80s today…they may reduce the potential instability during the afternoon and lead to a less dense coverage of future storms. Remember that later today/this evening if you miss out on decent rainfall and my concern is that many will indeed miss out on decent rain.

Let’s face it, even if the whole area gets 1/4″ of rainfall…in the summer scheme of things, that just won’t cut it. We average about 1″/week and we haven’t seen that in awhile. With lower humidity and bright sunshine we can evaporate 1/4″ of moisture/DAY for goodness sakes. I’ve also noticed lately the tell-tale signs of the ground being baked out…yesterday the dewpoints were down into the middle 60s again…this has happened a few times recently and is a sign the the terrain isn’t giving up as much moisture anymore because it’s parched. This happened last year during the drought, allowing temperatures to soar, and it’s something that IF it doesn’t change soon, may mean the worst of summer’s heat (the hottest highs) is coming in August but probably not till at least after the 5th or so…if not longer.

So with all that said here is what’s on the table…there is actually a small risk of severe weather today with whatever boundary firing back up from the remnant MCS coming down the pike. For the next few hours the main chance will be across far N MO…but it’s very marginal to non-existent now with the cooler air spreading through N MO imo.

Let’s see IF anything re-fires in the PM hours…there is some definite pessimism in the back of my mind about how all this will play out for the rest of the day (in terms of being widespread and beneficial) and I do hope I’m wrong about this.

There may be another chance of something later this week but let’s not get excited about that till maybe on Thursday because the Metro may be in the wrong place again for that one too. Have a great day and enjoy the cooler weather over the next week or so!

Joe

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