My apologies for the late blog today. I’m in transit and internet has been a bit of a chore so far…so I’ll keep this short and sweet…maybe.
It’s a fascinating day across the region as a warm front has set up just to the south of the metro and temperatures as a result are all over the place…ranging from the 80s SE of the metro towards Clinton, MO to the 40s to the NW of KC. The metro is in between but still on the cold side of the front. Here is the latest surface map and see if you can draw in where the warm front would be. The temperatures are in RED so look for those and the wind arrows.. Look at Warsaw, MO…86°!
If you guessed between Sedalia and Clinton you are correct. Notice the wind arrows in Sedalia and then in Clinton from the north in Sedalia and from the south in Clinton. So far we’re on the cold side of the front which means the tornadic risk for the metro at this point is still low. That warm front needs to lift farther to the north. Remember how I said yesterday that you’d be able to forecast the weather on your own today by observing the winds and the temperatures…well if you’re chilly, the severe weather threat is mostly hail…and if you’re warm then the other modes of severe weather are in play.
The SPC has issued several Tornado Watches for the region from essentially the KC metro southwards…here is their latest thinking.
The RED boxes are the Tornado Watches that run till about 10 PM tonight. Regardless of the set-up today. MAKE SURE you watch Mike Thompson for the latest weather information tonight @ 5/6/9/10 and as needed should any severe weather develop.
Here is the latest radar from Pleasant Hill…
As of this writing there are storms closer to the Lakes region, and IF that warm front doesn’t make any more progress northwards the highest chance of tornados would be to the south of the metro.
My biggest concern is the potential for flooding across the region overnight tonight as storms which fire up will be moving towards the NE and “training” over the same territory. This set-up with all the moisture available in the atmosphere will create heavy(!) rainfall with 2-4″ possible. The latest RAP model is all sorts of wet(!) with storms and heavy rainfall. Hence the Flash Flood Watch/Flood warnings that are in effect for a good chunk of the region.
Here is the forecasted rainfall totals off the rAP model through tomorrow AM…a lot of rain is possible.
Again check in with FOX 4 News/weather for the latest information tonight.